Mongo, Fantasy Football Consultant
Welcome to the world of stats, projections, and positive values. It’s a dark, secluded world, full of numbers and calculators and make NO mistake about it, it’s not for everyone!! If you’re not willing to put in the long hours of work involved, stop reading now, maybe you’re not playoff material, grab yourself an ‘off the stand’ cheat sheet and have a good time. You may do well, but I doubt it.
Allow me to first say that this is not the only draft system, but it is the system that works for me and it works consistently for me. It’s not just enough to speculate on how a player is going to do this year, you must also find a system that allows you to take that information and apply it to your league and your situation and this system does this very well!
Now, let’s get started.
The first step is to develop projected yearly stats for every player you feel will be drafted, yes, every player, as I said earlier “there’s a lot of work involved”, but I guarantee you this, Do the work, apply the system and on draft day you will have a huge advantage over the other owners in your league. “How do I make accurate projections”? Hey look, nobody’s perfect with projections, you’ll do well to get close, but it must be done. I suggest finding other projections (many internet sites offer them for free), take the average of these projections and use this as a starting point for your projections, knowing that the more projections you use to get an average, the more consistent your projections are. Now to the projection averages add your own tilt to them, your hunches, gut feelings and personal knowledge, to come up with your own projections. Don’t sell yourself short, know the teams, know the players and their injury histories. All of these things, plus a thousand more, should go into your projections. OK, now you have projected yearly stats for every player you feel will be drafted, “ What’s next”??
Plug these stats into your league’s scoring system and come up with a projected number of total fantasy football points scored for each player. Rank them, by position, from the highest to the lowest and for now leave them separated by position.
Here’s the rub, the object of this game is not to score a ton of points, but rather it’s to outscore your opponent! How do I do this you ask, by selecting players who outscore their peers and not necessarily those players who score a ton of points. People often have a hard time with this! “ How can T. Kelce’s 185 points be more valuable than M Thomas’ 275 points?”, well that’s because it’s not a game of TE vs #1 WR, like what’s played in stadiums around the U.S., it’s a TEAM GAME!!
Everyone is bound to a starting line-up, as to the position we must fill and it’s dictated by our league rules. Each week we will play a team that is bound by the same rules, so the object of the game is not to assemble a group of high scoring players( without regard to position), but to build a starting line-up with the highest scoring players at each position.
Assigning a positive value:
Using your league’s starting line-up requirements to determine the starters in your league. For example, if you are required to start 1 QB and there are 10 teams in your league, then there will be 10 starting QBs in your league, 1 for each team. Now use your yearly FF points totals at QB to determine the 10 starters for your league. It will be the ten highest scoring QBs. Here’s an example. A B C
- T Brady 500 total points (+200)
- A Rodgers 475 total points (+175)
- M Ryan 400 total points (+100)
- D Brees 375 total points (+75)
- R Wilson 375 total points (+75)
- B Roethlisberer 350 total points (+50)
- J Winston 345 total points (+45)
- A Luck 325 total points (+25)
- K Cousins 315 total points (+15)
- D Carr 300 total points (+-0)
Now, using Carr’s point total (300) and subtract that form each starting QBs total. “Why”? Carr is the lowest starting QB, so his value is zero (300-300=0), you will get a positive value for the other starting QBs.(see column B)
Now do the same for the RBs, but remember if you must start 2 RBs, then there’s going to be 20 starting RBs in your league. The RBs with the 20 best total FF points will be your starters.
A B C
- D Johnson 450 total points (+250)
- L Bell 445 total points (+245)
- E Elliot 400 total points (+200)
- L McCoy 395 total points (+195)
- J Howard 390 total points (+190)
- D Freeman 385 total points (+185)
- M Gordon 385 total points (+185)
- J Ajayi 350 total points (+150)
- D Murray 325 total points (+125)
- L Miller 315 total points (+115)
- T Gurley 300 total points (+100)
- I Crowell 290 total points (+90)
- F Gore 285 total points (+85)
- M Ingram 275 total points (+75)
- CJ Anderson 260 total points (+60)
- J Hill 250 total points (+50)
- S. Ware 230 total points (+30)
- L Fournette 220 total points (+20)
- C Hyde 210 total points (+10)
- M Forte 200 total points (+-0)
As before, the lowest starter is M. Forte, his value is zero (200-200=0) By now you should get the idea, do the same process for WR and TE.
A B
- A Brown 350 total points (+175)
- O Beckham 345 total points (+170)
- M Evans 330 total points (+155)
- J Jones 330 total points (+155)
- J Nelson 325 total points (+150)
- AJ Green 315 total points (+140)
- D Bryant 315 total points (+140)
- TY Hilton 300 total points (+125)
- K Allen 285 total points (+110)
- M Thomas 275 total points (+100)
- A Cooper 270 total points (+95)
- A Jeffery 260 total points (+85)
- D Hopkins 245 total points (+70)
- D Baldwin 235 total points (+60)
- S Watkins 215 total points (+40)
- D Adams 205 total points (+30)
- B Cooks 185 total points (+10)
- A Robinson 185 total points (+10)
- D Moncrief 185 total points (+10)
- T Pryor 175 total points (+-0)
A B
- T Kelce 185 total points (+115)
- R Gronkowski 150 total points (+80)
- J Reed 130 total points (+60)
- G Olsen 130 total points (+60)
- J Graham 115 total points (+45)
- D Walker 100 total points (+30)
- M Bennett 95 total points (+25)
- K Rudolph 85 total points (+15)
- Z Ertz 85 total points (+15)
- H Henry 70 total points (+-0)
As you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned Ks or DEFs. This is not a mistake, the difference in positive values between the #1 K and the #10 K is minimal. The same is true for DEFs, so draft them both late, very late.
Now that you have a positive value for each projected starter in your league, rank them by highest value.
- D Johnson (+250)
- L Bell (+245)
- T Brady (+200)
- E Elliot (+200)
- L McCoy (+195)
- J Howard (+190)
- D Freeman (+185)
- M Gordon (+185)
- A Brown (+175)
- A Rodgers (+175)
- O Beckham (+170)
- M Evans (+155)
- J Jones (+155)
- J Nelson (+150)
- J Ajayi (150)
and so forth
Put everyone together, don’t separate by positions. At your draft use this list to keep track of who’s been drafted ahead of you and when it’s your turn draft the highest valued player available, regardless of position! As your draft continues, let’s say it’s your turn in the 3rd round, you have already filled your starting RB requirements and you still need a #1 WR. There’s a RB with a positive of 125(D Murray) left and a WR with a positive value of 95( A Cooper) left. Who do you draft?? This is a tough one, but if the value is greater than 40 between them, then take the highest valued player assuming your league allows trades, if it’s less than 40 go with your gut!
Well, I’ve rambled enough, I hope all of this helps explain a Value Based Draft System. Sharpen your pencils, get to work and have fun.
PS- It’s always FUN when you win!!