“Ask Vic” will publish on Mondays and Thursdays through the offseason.
Alan from Albuquerque, NM
Vic, did someone tell the Packers defense wins games?
Brian Gutekunst’s first two drafts tell us what he thought of the Packers’ talent on defense: There wasn’t any.
Milan from New York
Wow! It’s so much easier to get better draft picks after a losing season than after a winning one.
If you want to draft well, lose.
Ben from Chicago, IL
Vic, did we pass up on a Bakhtiari by trading those fourth-round picks?
The Packers could’ve stayed at 30 and picked Jawaan Taylor, and everybody would’ve praised the Packers for getting such great value and still have addressed need, but then they wouldn’t have safety Darnell Savage. What if they had traded back a few spots from 12 and picked Savage, and then have taken Taylor at 30? Do you like Savage and Taylor better than Gary and Savage? Did the Packers really need to spend their first pick on a pass rusher after having spent a good chunk of their salary cap on signing pass rushers in free agency?
Christopher from Marina Del Rey, CA
Feel like sharing your draft grades on Pitt, Jax and Green Bay?
C,B,C. The Steelers went flat on day three. The Jaguars were a solid A until they reached for Quincy Williams. The Packers didn’t address need at wide receiver, and they had several solid opportunities to do it.
Andy from Munich, Germany
Wow! Tony Pauline picked Jawaan Taylor for the Jags and Devin Bush for the Steelers. Moreover, in his online column, Tony picked Savage for the Packers. Amazing mock drafting!
He’s my man.
James from Columbia, MD
Have you ever gotten your eyes on a team’s draft board? If so, how wrong are the draftniks out there?
I saw one once but didn’t study it because it would’ve been disrespectful of the situation that permitted it. It’s proprietary information and it needs to be treated as such. The scouts won’t work with you if they can’t trust you. The draftniks? They do great work. Without them, the draft wouldn’t be nearly as enjoyable for us. Remember this: Everybody is right and everybody is wrong because everybody’s opinion isn’t the same. That’s what makes the draft the fun event it is. The big difference between draftniks grading the players and the teams picking the players is the draftniks over-analyze, whereas the teams are looking for a guy who can play a specific role on the team. That’s especially true of the late-round picks. I’ll use Benny Snell as an example. The draftniks go into great detail about Snell’s physical limitations. The Steelers see a guy who scored 48 touchdowns. My guess is Snell will be cast in the role of a goal-line runner.
Lance from Lincoln, NE
It seems the Jags will always be the Jags. Taking Quincy Williams in the third round? Bryan Anger, Part II.
By all appearances, the Jaguars reached big time for Williams, but nobody can criticize the Jaguars for not staying true to their board. Williams is the biggest head-scratcher since Tom Coughlin drafted a long-snapper from Canada who had a name that made him sound like a hockey player.
Curtis from Racine, WI
I asked my 30-something son during the draft why Ohio State quarterback Haskins was upset being drafted No. 15 overall? He said he wanted to be drafted higher. I said to my son, “That’s the difference between your generation and my generation. Just being drafted was all we wanted; a chance to play in the NFL, no matter where we were drafted.”
Our generation didn’t have three-network coverage of the draft. For the first several years of my career, I covered the draft in a smoke-filled media room at Three Rivers Stadium. There was no TV because Kiper had yet to invent it. There was an easel that displayed a picks order. When a pick was made, the Steelers’ PR guy would come into the room and write the name on the picks order. We laughed when it was announced ESPN would telecast live coverage of the draft. How will they fill time, we giggled? Mel Kiper is one of the most important men in NFL history. He has created something that rivals the Super Bowl in hype and in promotional value to the NFL. Your son is a product of the Kiper era of the NFL.
Jesse from Akaska, SD
If the draft were to happen in New England, would anyone’s headsets work in selection square?
Intermittently.
Barry from Hayward, WI
Vic, what’s the most common mistake teams make during the draft and which team is least prone to committing this error?
Teams reach. They know it’s a no-no but they still do it. They fall in love with a guy or become obsessed with addressing a need, and they’ll even go so far as to change their boards to defend their decision to draft him. The Jaguars did it with Byron Leftwich. Bill Belichick won’t reach. He targets players he likes — Chase Winovich is the next Mike Vrabel — but he won’t reach for them. I think Belichick learned his lesson from the Kyle Brady/Craig Powell fiasco.
Kelvin from Kenilworth, UK
Apart from the three teams you covered, which team’s draft choices were of most interest, whether due to them getting value or seemingly reaching out of need? Personally, the Broncos’ approach struck me as somewhat odd in stepping away from the top 10, considering their roster needs the type of quality and youth that was available in the top 12-15 before the drop off.
The Broncos’ draft is intriguing because the perception is they got a first-round quarterback who fell into the second round. Drew Lock will define the Broncos’ 2019 draft. He’s the kind of pick who can change the course of history for a franchise. So, why did he fall? Paxton Lynch was thought to have fallen fortuitously to the Broncos, but he’s a bust. Is Lock the next Elway or the next Lynch? I like the Lock pick. If there’s one draft class I don’t like, it’s the Lions’. A tight end with the eighth overall pick? With Oliver, Bush and Wilkins on the board, the Lions picked a tight end?
Steve from Hudson, WI
I learned something from the Internet today. All the pics for all the teams could have been better. Doesn’t take a genius to see that. What were they thinking drafting that guy? Draft day sure brings out the draft experts.
The draft is like marriage proposal: They all look good in the beginning. Hey, enjoy it while you can.
Jerry from Savannah, GA
Vic, you often say the draft is a crystal ball business. What does your crystal ball say about Daniel Jones and the Giants?
I get the feeling the Giants picked for the coach, instead of for the franchise.
Jim from Maple Grove, MN
Vic, do you think the Packers would have picked Devin Bush had the Steelers not moved up to get him? Do you think this move will live in Packers/Steelers draft infamy, a la T.J. Watt/Kevin King?
The thought had crossed my mind, but the Steelers trade-up was expected, so the Packers had plenty of time to prepare for it. There’s no chance the Packers got caught off guard and picked Rashan Gary because he was the closest thing to Bush. With Haskins on the board, I have to believe the Packers could’ve done a deal with the Redskins to move back a few spots and pick Gary, if the Packers had gotten caught off guard with the Bush pick. I get the sense Gary was the Packers’ guy and they liked him right where they picked him.
Rick from El Cerrito, CA
What is Tony Pauline’s opinion about the draft for the Jags, Packers and Steelers?
Jags — “Surprised by the Josh Allen pick. Reminds me of the Dante Fowler pick. Taylor, Oliver and Armstead are outstanding selections.” Steelers — “Love their draft. Good players that are perfect fits. All of their picks will make an active roster or practice squad.” Packers — “I like the offensive players they selected but don’t understand the first two selections based on the great job they did in free agency.” Hmmm. “Tony, you picked Savage for the Packers in a mock draft. What don’t you like, I said?” “I did. I’m smarter than I remember,” Tony said. “I don’t dislike him. It’s more Gary I don’t understand after free agency. The way things fell, I probably would’ve considered N’Keal Harry or A.J. Brown at 30.”
Mike from Somerset, WI
Are you able to expand on Brian Gutekunst’s comment the NFL is a third-down league?
If you can’t rush the passer, you can’t get off the field on third down. The Packers should certainly be able to rush the passer.
Bob from Green Bay, WI
Overall, I understand the picks. Gute worked hard at revamping the defense. But the thing I dislike most about the Packers’ draft this year is it’s another year they don’t pick a skill position in the first round in Rodgers’ tenure. Can only do so much. Would have liked to see an offensive player taken in one of the top two picks. Your thoughts?
A wide receiver didn’t get picked until pick No. 25. I’m OK with not picking a WR in round one. Round two is when the wide receivers began popping up. I thought the Packers might’ve grabbed a guy from that bunch. The two guys from Ole Miss are intriguing. So is Campbell from Ohio State. The slot receiver the Steelers picked from Toledo would be a good prospect to replace Randall Cobb. No surprise in round one, especially after trading up, but after that, yeah, I was surprised.
Bruce from Bloomington, IL
Was this an Al Davis draft? Speed first?
This was a Charles Darwin draft. It seemed as though everybody picked was related to somebody who played in the league. Fathers and sons, brothers, cousins, etc. Matt Snell’s grandson? It’s evolution. When in doubt, draft bloodlines.
O-Zone:
JACKSONVILLE – Let’s get to it …
Amit from Jacksonville
I can’t decide if it’s gutsy or a stupid lack of self-preservation skills. A losing season is likely to see a lot of seats getting hot and drafting a kid nobody has ever heard of – even with a famous brother – looks very risky on a job-security level. Fair or not, if you draft a well-known player and he tanks – everyone forgets. If you stick your neck out for someone nobody has heard of and he tanks, people remember. Bryan Anger, anyone?
The Jaguars drafting Murray State linebacker Quincy Williams – I assume that’s what this question references – had nothing to do with his brother being well-known. And it was neither gutsy, nor stupid – at least not any more than any other draft selection. You’re looking at the draft in a way the people drafting don’t see it. When NFL teams scout and draft, they don’t say “Hey, has Daniel Jeremiah heard of Player X? Gee, I hope so because then all of the media and our fans will praise us on Twitter and we’ll get a good draft grade!!” That’s the world of the fans and the observer, but the personnel people must live in a different world. They scout the player during the season, then have multiple people within the organization study the player. If the player is good enough, he goes on the draft board along with a few hundred other players the process had deemed good enough. If a player is a value selection at some point in the process, you take him. And when you do, you aren’t worrying what @NFLDraftGuru123456789 is saying about it. You better not be worrying about that, anyway. If that’s your concern, you won’t be drafting very long. Also, you made the point that people forget it if a well-known player tanks. Hmmmm …
Unhipcat from Palm Desert and it’s hot
John, gotta say I’m not impressed with some of the UDFAs we’ve signed. I think we could have signed them later.
I laughed at this.
John from Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Jaguars General Manager David Caldwell has drafted a number of players from small schools such as Ohio, Florida International, Montana, Monmouth, Appalachian State and Central Arkansas. Absolutely none of them are on the team. Why should fans have any confidence that his latest small-school venture will turn out any differently? His draft mistakes are starting to pile up. Time to move on …
Teams draft players from small schools every year. Some work out. Some don’t. Teams draft players from big schools all the time. Some work out. Some don’t. Have confidence in whatever you want. Or don’t. It really won’t have anything to do with whether Williams is good.
Jeremy from Bellevue, NE
I have liked Telvin Smith but he’s just another guy. A replaceable player. He has continued to miss tackles and plays in every season so far. He’s just a guy who doesn’t have the decency to communicate with his employer.
One not really fer Telvin …
Roger from London, UK
Hi, John. Appreciating that your focus is on covering Jaguars news, I’m wondering what your view is of the AFC South for the upcoming season? Most divisions have one team (at least) that stands out as the weak link, but to me all four teams in the AFC South look strong and equal. I can see all four finishing in the range 9-7 to 7-9, which will be one very tight division.
The AFC South could be the NFL’s most competitive division next season, and none of the four teams winning the division would be a shock. I doubt all will finish in the range from 9-7 to 7-9 – but only because that’s a statistical rarity in the NFL.
Dave from Jacksonville
Well, Zone the Jags sure check a lot of “boxes” in the 2019 NFL Draft. Do you really think it’s that easy: just check some boxes and it’s off to the playoffs? They were terrible last season.
Of course it’s not that easy. Quarterback Nick Foles must be what the Jaguars believe he will be, they must stay healthy and they must show an ability to make plays in the clutch and win close games. It’s the National Football League. It’s never easy. Every team wants to win.
Gabe from Chapel Hill, NC
Don’t sleep on Space City University. The Argonauts have a redshirt senior pass rusher who didn’t even start playing football until he was a senior in high school. Definitely has traits that translate to the next level. #SCU
DontsleeponSCU
Steve Sunroom Couch
Dear, John: Help me understand draft capital. So, I’m to assume Smoot was a better selection than, say Elflein or Feeney? As long as the Jaguars got an Illinois alum rather than a solid O-line pick, that makes it prudent?
Wow. You do need some help. When I say “draft capital,” I’m talking about the ability to select a player or use the selection to trade up and get another player – thereby using that “capital.” Selecting Dawuane Smoot over Feeney had nothing to do with “draft capital.” It was a choice of one player over another.
Nathan from St. Augustine, FL
Love the Josh Allen pick! The Jags’ third-and-long defensive line should bring back the plus-turnover ratio from 2017 with an improved offense. My question, though, is wouldn’t Taven Bryan be the rush defensive tackle instead of Marcell? Go Jags!
Eventually, yes. But while Marcell Dareus indeed is the nose tackle, he is a very good pass rusher when that’s his focus. And until Bryan shows he’s the better option, Dareus figures to get a lot of plays in passing situations.
Jagninator from (formerly of) Section 124
Lemme tell you about “draft capital.” Since 2011, the Jags have traded UP 9 times and traded DOWN 2 times. Now you can tell me all day about “getting the player you want,” but empirical evidence says that NFL execs aren’t as prescient as they think they are. This draft thing is a best-guess kinda scenario. And in that scenario, I want more lottery tickets – not fewer. The Jags’ record since 2011 would seem to back that up.
Now, here’s someone with a decent grasp of “draft capital.” It is about moving up and moving down. And if your point is that the draft is an inexact science, you’re right. It’s best described as a percentage game. You do everything you can to increase your percentages by just a little bit, but you do so realizing you’re depending on human beings – which means depending on a lot of factors outside your control. And it means your percentage is not going to be 100. Or 90. Or 80. The best general managers “miss” on multiple selections every year. That’s just how it is, but it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to use their draft capital as best they can.
Sam from Orange Park, FL
If some people think finding an edge rusher is easy should go back and look at some of the talent we were trotting out onto the field from 2010-2014. Good Lord.
Fair.
Rick from Franconia, VA
O, I knew Josh Allen could rush the passer but had no idea he was also so accomplished as a linebacker in coverage and against the run. Seems like a guy you want on the field as much as possible. Do you think he’s a three-down player – SAM on running downs and edge rusher on passing downs?
Allen has the skill set to play linebacker, but I don’t anticipate that happening soon. He’s a rookie. Let him figure out how to find his locker first.
Mike from Jacksonville
Several teams traded out of low first-round round picks this year. I would think the benefit of keeping a player in their rookie contract for an additional and optional fifth year would be a value I wouldn’t want to part with. Do teams factor that fifth year when determining value of a late first-round round pick?
Yes.
Bob from Ocala, FL
John, will there ever be another Culligan cheerleader or was she a once in a lifetime talent?
I would say we might be talking about a once-in-generational talent as opposed to a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Bob from Sumter, SC
With the dust settling from the draft the truth is coming out. Insiders report the Jaguars chose a Power 5 “beast” wide receiver with the second third-round pick, but Gene Smith changed the pick on the way from the draft room. Caldwell’s a joke. Reliable sources say he could have traded Telvin Smith for a first rounder and then traded down and gotten five picks. Videos have surfaced clearly showing a rocking chair in the draft room. Eye witnesses report Coughlin is so old he had to nap in between picks and then be woken up for interviews. When will you stop being a shill for this team and start reporting what’s REALLY going on? You probably don’t even have a mock draft yet for 2020.
On to OTAs!
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